TIME FORM RATING - THEORY AND CONCEPT
Nearly about 13 years back Mr S K Sagar had written on the concept of Time Form Rating of Race Horses.
A very useful article and anyone interested to acquire in depth knowledge will come out as a much learned person on this subject.
Beyers' speed rating is widely followed and has a different approach. I will dwell on it also, if time permits.
Since certain Race Goers have been asking me to share it, I am sure it will be beneficial for those who are serious racing handicappers.
I MAINTAIN THAT THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES AND FACTORS (LIKE A SPOKE OF A WHEEL WHICH HAVE TO BE SUBSEQUENTLY BALANCED) TO ASSESS THE WINING PROBABITITY OF A RACE HORSE. IT CAN BE REASONABLY ACQUIRED WITH DEEPER EXPERIENCE AND FORMING A BOND BETWEEN THEM IN A REALISTIC APPROACH AND STUDY. TFR IS ONE OF THEM TO ASSIST YOU TO REACH TOWARDS YOUR GOAL.
Mr S K Sagar writes :-
Posted Date: 4/21/2007
Subject: Rating and handicapping - basic calculations, and general aspects of racing
questions on some of the basic aspects of handicapping and rating and what are the broad parameters to be considered in calculations to predict a winner.
Accordingly I am giving my views based on my knowledge of the subject .Experts who read this article may respond with their views and correct me if they like.
A) What is meant by the term LENGTH and what is the time required to cover 1L :
Length corresponds simply to the length of a horse. There are no statistical surveys carried out to show what the average length of a horse is or what the average height of a human being is. According to my knowledge the average length of a thoroughbred horse is about 2.70Metres (8.85 Feet)
What is the time required to cover one length particularly at the finishing stage? This varies a great deal, in a closely fought 1000m sprint (In USA they even have 400m races) in the highest class on an excellent track in good going this may take as little as 0.14 seconds. Tiring horses in a long distance race, back markers (no hopers) may take even more than 0.28 secs .An Average horse rated 72 on the Time form scale (will discuss this later) on a good track in good going in a middle distance race will cover one length in 0.165 secs For calculation purposes most people recommend a 0.2 secs per length as a standard yardstick. Nevertheless I take this figure as 0.18 secs.
B) What is the effect of increasing the WEIGHT on a horse :
Increasing the weight on a horse by 1.0 kilo will render a horse slower by 0.0001D seconds, where D = distance of the race. Thus in a 1400 Meters race a horse will take 0.14 seconds longer than what it would have taken if he had carried 1.0 kg less weight. The effect per kg increase in the weight is even more pronounced if the initial weight is in the range 60 to 70kgs and substantially more pronounced if the initial weight is greater than 70 kgs.Further some horses are more susceptible to weight increase and others (called weight carriers) are less susceptible.
C) What is `RATING` & How to determine the RATING of a horse:
Rating of a horse signifies its caliber as a race horse. Standard rating system adopted
In U.K. and many other countries is the TIMEFORM rating system and the rating points given are in terms of pounds by weight. Thus a horse`x` rated 5 points higher than another horse `y` is expected to run as fast as `y` even if carrying 5 lbs higher weight.
Provided other parameters are equal. Highest Time form rating given to date is 145 to the champion horse `Secretariate`.Indian rating system is about 30 points higher than the
Corresponding TF rating .Thus a horse rated 110 points as per Indian rating system is
Equivalent to an 80 points rating on the TF system. Thus all class V horses in India rated
Between 0 and 30 will get a negative TF rating and will generally not be permitted to race in a well recognized racecourse.
I have developed a formula to determine the Timeform rating of a horse based on speed records for various distances giving due cognizance to the weights carried and to the fact that some of the records might have been achieved on an unusually fast track.
First I give below the World record timings for various distances varying from 5 Furlongs(1006m) to 2 miles(3218m):
1006m: PROCREATE - 7 yrs, Weight 120 lbs, Track Hollywood Park, 1995- 53.79 secs(unusually fast dirt track)-on turf the record is 55.20secs held by CHINOOK PASS
1207m: G MALLEAH - 4 yrs,120 lbs Turf Paradise – 1995 – 1min.6.6 secs
1408m: SOARING FREE – 5 yrs, 126 lbs, Woodbine – 2004 – 1 min 19.38 secs
1610 m : MR.LIGHT – 6 yrs, 118 lbs, Gulfstream Park—2005 -1 min.31.41 secs
1811m: KOSTROMA- 5 yrs , 117 lbs, Santa Anita Park – 1991 -1min.43.92 secs
2012m: DOUBLE DISCOUNT- 4yrs,116 lbs,SantaAnitaPark-1977-1m57.4 secs
2213m: WITH APPROVAL --4 yrs, 118 lbs, Belmont Park – 1990 -2m. 10.20 secs
2414m: HAWKSTER – 3 yrs- 121 lbs, Santa Anita Park – 1989 – 2m 22.80 secs
2816m: PAPER JUNCTION- 4 yrs 123 lbs, Lincoln State Fair 1985 2m.50.4 secs.
3218m: PETRONE – 5 yrs, 124 lbs, Hollywood Park- 1969 – 3m-18secs
Next, by careful scrutiny of the above record timings (ignoring some freak runs ) and on the assumption that as the distance increases the timing for each 200m increases from about 11.5 secs at the 1000m stage to about 14.0 secs at the 3000m stage(This range is for top rated horses increasing to about 13 secs & 16 secs respectively for zero rated horses) I determine the yardstick for a 150 points rating on the Timeform scale being the time taken `T1` by a horse rated 150 points to cover various distances carrying 120 lbs(54.5kgs) on a perfect going with perfect distance suitability with no false rails etc etc as follows:
Distance: 1000m Time T1: 54.7 secs
Distance: 1200m Time T1: 66.4secs
Distance: 1400m Time T1: 78.4 secs
Distance: 1600m Time T1: 90.7 secs
Distance: 1800m Time T1: 103.2secs
Distance: 2000m Time T1: 115.9 secs
Distance: 2200 m Time T1: 129.0 secs
Distance: 2400m Time T1: 142.2 secs
Distance: 2800m Time T1: 169.4 secs
Distance: 3200m Time T1: 197.4secs
Next , I give below the formula for determination of the Time form rating of a horse based on a particular performance (Deriving this formula is no big deal as only para `B` above is required for this purpose ) as given below :
Let T = Time in secs taken by the horse.
Let D = Distance travelled in Meters.
Let W = Weight carried by the horse in kgs
Then its Timeform rating = 2.2W + 30 – 22222 (T – T1)/D
EXAMPLES :
A)MYSTICAL`S performance in the Indian St.Leger of March 2006 :
Distance `D`= 2800m, Weight `W` =57.0kgs, Time `T` =2min 54.06 ecs =174.06secs
Hence TF Rating = 2.2 x 57.0 + 30 – 22222 ( 174.06 – 169.4)/2800 = 118.4
B) MYSTICAL`S performance in his last outing at Mumbai (Dec 2006)
Distance `D` =1600m, `W` = 62.0 kgs, Time `T` = 1min 34.6 secs = 94.6 secs
TF Rating = 2.2 x 62 + 30 – 22222 ( 94.6 – 90.7)/1600 = 112.2
C) SOUTHERN EMPIRE`S performance in the Indian Turf Invitation Cup, March 2007
Distance `D` = 2400m, `W` = 57 kgs, Time `T` = 2min 28.06 secs = 148.06secs
TF Rating = 2.2 x 57 + 30 – 22222 ( 148.06 – 142.2)/2400 = 101.2
D) BOURBON KING`S performance in the Poona Walla Breeders Million, Feb 2007
Distance `D` = 1400m,`W` = 56 kgs, Time `T` = 1min 23.76 secs = 83.76 secs
TF Rating = 2.2 x 56 + 30 – 22222(83.76 – 78.4)/1400 = 67.5
E) SPECTACULAR BID`S performance at Santa Anita in 1980
Distance `D` = 2012m, `W` = 57.0 kgs (126 lbs),Time `T`=Im 57.8s=117.8 secs,
Corresponding `T1` for 2012 m = 115.9 x 2012/2000 = 116.6
TF Rating = 126 + 30 – 22222(117.8 – 116.6)/2012 =142.7
F) SECRETARIATE`S performance at Belmont Park in 1973
Distance `D` = 2414m, `W` =57 Kgs(126 lbs) Time `T` = 2min24 s= 144 secs
Corresponding `T1` for 2414m = 142.2 x 2414/2400 =143.0secs
TF Rating = 126 + 30 – 22222 ( 144 – 143.0 )/2414 = 146.8
You can work out your own rating charts for as many horses as you like in the following manner :
a) For a select few horses in races run in very good going won in near record timings determine TF rating as per procedure given above.
b) For other horses determine TF rating by appropriate comparisons with horses in a). For this purpose as far as possible closely fought races only should be considered where horses appear to have run to their true potential.
c) If a particular horse gets two different values x and y for its rating where x is greater than y ,then adopt 0.75x + 0.25y for its rating .
d) Exercise your own judgement and adjust the rating suitably by giving due consideration of the reserve potential of a horse for example if a winner of a race was a trifle handy or if a losing horse was eased up by its jockey.
You might ask why you should take the trouble to determine the ratings when its all given in the race book worked out by the official handicapper a deemed expert in the line. To this question my answer is that the handicapper is perhaps bound by certain guidelines such as he can not give a triple or even a double promotion to a horse based on its performance in a handicap race however great the performance might be,as an example consider race no :84 (Mumbai winter) won by Definite Spice in the lowest class(V) in 0m-59.58 secs over 1000m carrying 59 kgs a performance Worth 51 points on the TF scale (81 points on the Indian rating system) but the horse`s rating was increased by only 20 points from about 30 to 50 points on the Indian rating scale so that it was in the range 20 to 50 (class 1V).It was no surprise when it won its next race (no: 108) in this class effortlessly by a big margin. There are many such examples. Besides there might be many of you whose judgement/expertise may be relatively better than the handicapper`s.
I am giving below my assessment of the TF ratings of some of the highest rated horses who have raced at least once in the Mumbai winter season :
AGED 4 YEARS AND ABOVE:
MYSTICAL : 114, HOLDING COURT : 104, SOUTHERN EMPIRE : 102,
APERETIVO : 99, DEMOCRATICUS : 88, DIABOLICAL : 87,
REJUVINATE : 86, FLASHING STAR : 84, OYSTER COVE : 84
DYNASTY : 84, AMAZING POWER : 82, BLUE RIBBON : 81,
ATMOSPHERE : 80 , POWERTHRUST : 80
AGED 3 YEARS:
BOURBON KING : 68 , OUR EXCELLENCE : 64, HOTSTEPPER : 63.
RETRIBUTION : 62.5 , ASSERT THE RIGHT : 62.5, ALVARITA : 62
QUEST FOR CASH : 61, AVEC PLASSIR : 61, STAR OF CHINA :61
Add 30 points to match with the Indian rating system
There are many many other factors that come into the calculations while determining the probable chance of a horse to win, some of them as far reaching as a horse owner`s characteristics and some relating to the quantum of uncertainty that creeps in whenever there are wide fluctuations in the bookmaker’s odds.
0 Comments